Burglary Risk Assessment Calculator
Estimate the relative burglary risk score for a residential property based on security measures, neighborhood factors, and occupancy patterns. A higher score indicates greater risk.
Your risk score will appear here.
Formula
Risk Score (0–10) = 0.35 × E + 0.40 × S + 0.25 × B
Where each component is normalised to a 0–10 scale:
- E (Environment) = [(2.0 × NeighborhoodRate + 1.5 × Visibility + 1.5 × NoWatchProgram) / 11] × 10
- S (Security) = [(1.5 × NoDeadbolt + 2.0 × NoAlarm + 1.5 × NoCameras + 1.0 × NoLighting + 1.0 × NoFencing + 1.0 × NoWindowLocks + 1.0 × NoDog) / 9] × 10
- B (Behavior) = [(1.5 × (HoursUnoccupied / 24) + 1.0 × VisibleValuables) / 2.5] × 10
Factor values are 0 (protective / low risk) to their maximum (high risk). Neighborhood rate ranges 1–4; all other binary/ternary factors range 0–1.
Risk Bands: 0–2.49 = Low | 2.50–4.99 = Moderate | 5.00–7.49 = High | 7.50–10 = Very High
Assumptions & References
- Factor weights are derived from criminological research on residential burglary deterrence (Clarke & Cornish, Routine Activity Theory).
- Monitored alarm systems reduce burglary risk by an estimated 60% vs. no alarm (Budd, 1999, British Crime Survey).
- Visible security cameras and signage deter opportunistic offenders (Welsh & Farrington, 2009, Campbell Systematic Review).
- Properties unoccupied >8 hours/day face significantly elevated risk (Cohen & Felson, 1979, Routine Activity Theory).
- Neighborhood Watch programs are associated with a 16–26% reduction in burglary rates (Holloway et al., 2008).
- Large dogs are among the top deterrents cited by convicted burglars (Wright & Decker, 1994).
- This calculator produces a relative risk index, not an absolute probability. Results should complement, not replace, a professional security audit.
- All inputs are self-reported; accuracy depends on honest assessment of property conditions.