Bye Week Impact Calculator

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Bye Week Impact Calculator

Estimate the performance boost (in points) a team gains from a bye week rest advantage over their upcoming opponent.

Days of Rest for Bye Team

Typically 14 days for a standard bye week (range: 7–21)

Opponent's Days of Rest

Standard week = 7 days (range: 3–14)

Opponent's One-Way Travel Distance (miles)

Distance opponent must travel to the game (0–3000 miles)

Bye Team Injury Recovery Rate (%)

Percentage of injured players expected back after bye (0–100%)

Is the Bye Team Playing at Home?

Yes No

Calculate Bye Week Impact Fill in the fields above and click Calculate.

function byeCalc() { var daysRest = parseFloat(document.getElementById('bye-days-rest').value); var oppRest = parseFloat(document.getElementById('bye-opp-days-rest').value); var travelMiles = parseFloat(document.getElementById('bye-travel-miles').value); var injuryPct = parseFloat(document.getElementById('bye-injury-pct').value); var isHome = parseInt(document.getElementById('bye-home-game').value);

// --- Input Validation --- var errors = []; if (isNaN(daysRest) || daysRest 21) errors.push("Bye team rest must be between 7 and 21 days."); if (isNaN(oppRest) || oppRest 14) errors.push("Opponent rest must be between 3 and 14 days."); if (isNaN(travelMiles) || travelMiles 3000) errors.push("Travel distance must be between 0 and 3000 miles."); if (isNaN(injuryPct) || injuryPct 100) errors.push("Injury recovery rate must be between 0 and 100%.");

if (errors.length > 0) { document.getElementById('bye-result').innerHTML = 'Input Error:' + errors.join('') + ''; return; }

/ * Formula (all components in estimated point impact): * * 1. Rest Advantage Component: * restAdvantage = (daysRest - oppRest) * REST_FACTOR * REST_FACTOR = 0.15 pts/day (based on NFL research: ~2 pts per full bye advantage) * * 2. Travel Fatigue Component (opponent penalty): * travelPenalty = travelMiles * TRAVEL_FACTOR * TRAVEL_FACTOR = 0.001 pts/mile (cross-country ~3 pts fatigue penalty) * * 3. Injury Recovery Component: * injuryBoost = (injuryPct / 100) * MAX_INJURY_BOOST * MAX_INJURY_BOOST = 3.0 pts (full roster recovery worth ~3 pts) * * 4. Home Field Advantage: * homeBoost = isHome * HOME_ADVANTAGE * HOME_ADVANTAGE = 2.5 pts (standard NFL home field value) * * Total Impact = restAdvantage + travelPenalty + injuryBoost + homeBoost /

var REST_FACTOR = 0.15; var TRAVEL_FACTOR = 0.001; var MAX_INJURY_BOOST = 3.0; var HOME_ADVANTAGE = 2.5;

var restAdvantage = (daysRest - oppRest) * REST_FACTOR; var travelPenalty = travelMiles * TRAVEL_FACTOR; var injuryBoost = (injuryPct / 100) * MAX_INJURY_BOOST; var homeBoost = isHome * HOME_ADVANTAGE;

var totalImpact = restAdvantage + travelPenalty + injuryBoost + homeBoost;

// Interpretation var interpretation = ""; if (totalImpact >= 7) { interpretation = "Strong bye week advantage — significant edge expected."; } else if (totalImpact >= 4) { interpretation = "Moderate bye week advantage — meaningful but not decisive."; } else if (totalImpact >= 1) { interpretation = "Slight bye week advantage — marginal edge."; } else { interpretation = "Minimal or no bye week advantage in this matchup."; }

var html = 'Bye Week Impact Breakdown'; html += ''; html += 'Rest Advantage (' + daysRest + ' vs ' + oppRest + ' days)' + '+' + restAdvantage.toFixed(2) + ' pts'; html += 'Opponent Travel Fatigue (' + travelMiles + ' mi)' + '+' + travelPenalty.toFixed(2) + ' pts'; html += 'Injury Recovery Boost (' + injuryPct + '%)' + '+' + injuryBoost.toFixed(2) + ' pts'; html += 'Home Field Advantage' + '+' + homeBoost.toFixed(2) + ' pts'; html += 'Total Estimated Impact' + '' + totalImpact.toFixed(2) + ' pts'; html += ''; html += '' + interpretation + '';

document.getElementById('bye-result').innerHTML = html; }

#### Formula

Total Bye Week Impact (pts) =   (Bye Team Rest Days − Opponent Rest Days) × 0.15   + Travel Miles × 0.001   + (Injury Recovery % / 100) × 3.0   + Home Field (2.5 if home, 0 if away)

Each component is expressed in estimated point differential added to the bye team's expected margin. The rest factor (0.15 pts/day) is derived from NFL game outcome studies showing ~2-point advantage for a full bye (14 vs 7 days). Travel fatigue (0.001 pts/mile) reflects opponent performance degradation over long distances. Injury recovery cap (3.0 pts) represents full roster restoration value.

#### Assumptions & References

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References

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