Expected Value by Draft Position Calculator

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Expected Value by Draft Position Calculator

Estimate the expected career value of an NFL draft pick based on its overall selection number, using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, the Chase Stuart AV curve, and a composite model.

Overall Pick Number (1–262)

Value Model

Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart (Trade Points) Chase Stuart AV Curve (Career AV) Composite (Normalized 0–100)

League Size (teams)

Total Draft Rounds

Calculate Expected Value

Fill in the fields above and click Calculate.

function expCalc() { const pickRaw = document.getElementById('exp-pick').value.trim(); const model = document.getElementById('exp-model').value; const leagueRaw = document.getElementById('exp-league').value.trim(); const roundsRaw = document.getElementById('exp-rounds').value.trim(); const out = document.getElementById('exp-result');

// ── Validation ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── if (pickRaw === '' || leagueRaw === '' || roundsRaw === '') { out.innerHTML = 'Please fill in all fields.'; return; } const pick = parseInt(pickRaw, 10); const league = parseInt(leagueRaw, 10); const rounds = parseInt(roundsRaw, 10); const totalPicks = league * rounds;

if (isNaN(pick) || pick 262) { out.innerHTML = 'Pick must be between 1 and 262.'; return; } if (isNaN(league) || league 32) { out.innerHTML = 'League size must be between 8 and 32.'; return; } if (isNaN(rounds) || rounds 10) { out.innerHTML = 'Rounds must be between 1 and 10.'; return; } if (pick > totalPicks) { out.innerHTML = 'Pick number (' + pick + ') exceeds total picks in draft (' + totalPicks + ').'; return; }

// ── Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart ───────────────────────────────────────── // Source: published JJ chart; values for picks 1–224 (beyond that ≈ 0) // Formula fitted by regression: V(p) = 3000 * e^(-0.1127 * p) for p >= 1 // Exact top-32 values hard-coded for accuracy; exponential decay for rest. const jjExact = { 1:3000, 2:2600, 3:2200, 4:1800, 5:1700, 6:1600, 7:1500, 8:1400, 9:1350, 10:1300, 11:1250, 12:1200, 13:1150, 14:1100, 15:1050, 16:1000, 17: 950, 18: 900, 19: 875, 20: 850, 21: 800, 22: 780, 23: 760, 24: 740, 25: 720, 26: 700, 27: 680, 28: 660, 29: 640, 30: 620, 31: 600, 32: 590 }; function johnsonValue(p) { if (p value) betterCount++; } const percentile = (1 - betterCount / totalPicks) * 100;

// Value relative to pick #1
const pick1Val = model === 'johnson' ? johnsonValue(1)
model === 'stuart' ? stuartAV(1)
compositeValue(1); const relPct = (value / pick1Val) * 100;

// ── Output ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── out.innerHTML = '### Results — ' + modelLabel + ' ' + '' + 'InputValue' + 'Overall Pick#' + pick + '' + 'Round / Pick in RoundRound ' + roundNum + ', Pick ' + pickInRnd + '' + 'Total Picks in Draft' + totalPicks + ' (' + league + ' teams × ' + rounds + ' rounds)' + '' + '' + 'MetricResult' + 'Expected Value' + value.toFixed(2) + ' ' + unit + '' + 'Value vs. Pick #1' + relPct.toFixed(1) + '%' + 'Percentile Among Draft Picks' + percentile.toFixed(1) + 'th percentile' + ''; }

#### Formulas

Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart: Picks 1–32: published hard-coded values (e.g., Pick 1 = 3,000 pts, Pick 32 = 590 pts). Picks 33+: V(p) = 590 × e−0.0715 × (p − 32)

Chase Stuart AV Curve: AV(p) = 100 × (1/p)0.67 Derived from empirical career Approximate Value data across thousands of draft picks (Football Perspective, 2012). Pick 1 ≈ 100 AV units; pick 32 ≈ 20 AV units.

Composite Model: C(p) = 0.5 × [JJ(p) / JJ(1) × 100] + 0.5 × AV(p) Both models are normalized to a 0–100 scale and equally weighted.

Percentile: Percentile = (1 − picks with higher value / total picks) × 100

#### Assumptions & References

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