Insider Threat Probability Estimator
ANA›Life Services Authority›National Calculator Authority›Insider Threat Probability Estimator
.calc-container { max-width: 640px; margin: 2rem 0; padding: 1.5rem; background: #fff; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius: 8px; box-shadow: 0 1px 3px rgba(0,0,0,0.06); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, sans-serif; } .calc-container h3 { font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1.15rem; color: #1a1a1a; margin-bottom: 1rem; padding-bottom: 0.5rem; border-bottom: 2px solid var(--ac, #3d5a80); } .calc-row { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 0.75rem; margin-bottom: 0.75rem; flex-wrap: wrap; } .calc-row label { min-width: 160px; font-size: 0.9rem; color: #333; font-weight: 500; } .calc-row input[type="number"], .calc-row select { flex: 1; min-width: 120px; max-width: 200px; padding: 0.5rem 0.6rem; border: 1px solid #ccc; border-radius: 4px; font-size: 0.9rem; font-family: system-ui, sans-serif; color: #1a1a1a; background: #fafaf8; } .calc-row input:focus, .calc-row select:focus { outline: none; border-color: var(--ac, #3d5a80); box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px rgba(26,74,138,0.12); } .calc-row .unit { font-size: 0.82rem; color: #888; min-width: 30px; } .calc-btn { display: inline-block; margin-top: 0.5rem; padding: 0.55rem 1.5rem; background: var(--ac, #3d5a80); color: #fff; border: none; border-radius: 4px; font-size: 0.9rem; font-weight: 600; cursor: pointer; font-family: system-ui, sans-serif; } .calc-btn:hover { opacity: 0.9; } .calc-result { margin-top: 1.25rem; padding: 1rem 1.25rem; background: #f0f6fc; border-left: 3px solid var(--ac, #3d5a80); border-radius: 0 6px 6px 0; display: none; } .calc-result.visible { display: block; } .calc-result-label { font-size: 0.78rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.06em; color: #666; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; } .calc-result-value { font-size: 1.6rem; font-weight: 700; color: var(--ac, #3d5a80); } .calc-result-detail { font-size: 0.85rem; color: #555; margin-top: 0.5rem; line-height: 1.5; } .calc-note { margin-top: 1rem; font-size: 0.8rem; color: #888; font-style: italic; } .calc-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr; gap: 0.75rem; margin-top: 0.75rem; } .calc-grid-item { padding: 0.6rem 0.8rem; background: #f8f9fa; border-radius: 4px; border: 1px solid #eee; } .calc-grid-item .label { font-size: 0.75rem; color: #888; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.04em; } .calc-grid-item .value { font-size: 1.1rem; font-weight: 600; color: #1a1a1a; } @media (max-width: 720px) { .calc-row { flex-direction: column; align-items: flex-start; gap: 0.3rem; } .calc-row label { min-width: auto; } .calc-row input[type="number"], .calc-row select { max-width: 100%; width: 100%; } .calc-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } } .calc-chart { margin: 1rem 0; text-align: center; } .calc-chart svg { max-width: 100%; height: auto; } .calc-chart-legend { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; justify-content: center; gap: 0.6rem 1.2rem; margin-top: 0.6rem; font-size: 0.8rem; color: #555; } .calc-chart-legend span { display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 0.3rem; } .calc-chart-legend i { display: inline-block; width: 10px; height: 10px; border-radius: 2px; font-style: normal; } .calc-related { max-width: 640px; margin: 2rem 0 1rem; padding: 1.25rem 1.5rem; background: #f8f9fa; border: 1px solid #e8e8e8; border-radius: 8px; } .calc-related h3 { font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1rem; color: #1a1a1a; margin: 0 0 0.75rem; padding-bottom: 0.4rem; border-bottom: 2px solid var(--ac, #3d5a80); } .calc-related-list { list-style: none; padding: 0; margin: 0 0 0.75rem; display: grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr; gap: 0.4rem 1.5rem; } .calc-related-list li a { font-size: 0.88rem; color: var(--ac, #3d5a80); text-decoration: none; } .calc-related-list li a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } .calc-browse-all { margin: 0.5rem 0 0; font-size: 0.9rem; font-weight: 600; } .calc-browse-all a { color: var(--ac, #3d5a80); text-decoration: none; } .calc-browse-all a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } @media (max-width: 720px) { .calc-related-list { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } }
Insider Threat Probability Estimator
Estimates the annual probability of an insider threat incident using a weighted risk-factor model based on CERT Insider Threat research and organizational security metrics.
Total Number of Employees
Number of Privileged Access Users
Annual Employee Turnover Rate (%)
Estimated Disgruntled / At-Risk Employees (%)
Data Loss Prevention (DLP) Controls in Place?
No DLP controls Partial DLP (some monitoring) Full DLP (comprehensive monitoring)
User & Entity Behavior Analytics (UEBA) Deployed?
No UEBA Basic UEBA Advanced UEBA with ML
Privileged Access Management (PAM) Maturity
No PAM controls Basic PAM (password vaulting only) Mature PAM (session recording, JIT access)
Security Awareness Training Frequency
No training Annual training Quarterly or continuous training
Industry Sector
Financial Services / Banking Healthcare Government / Defense Technology / IT Retail / E-commerce General / Other Education
Known Insider Incidents in Past 3 Years
Calculate Insider Threat Probability
function insCalc() { // --- Collect inputs --- var employees = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-employees').value); var privileged = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-privileged').value); var turnover = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-turnover').value); var disgruntled = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-disgruntled').value); var dlp = parseInt(document.getElementById('ins-dlp').value); var ueba = parseInt(document.getElementById('ins-ueba').value); var pam = parseInt(document.getElementById('ins-pam').value); var training = parseInt(document.getElementById('ins-training').value); var industry = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-industry').value); var incidents = parseFloat(document.getElementById('ins-incidents').value);
// --- Validation --- var errors = []; if (isNaN(employees) || employees employees) errors.push("Privileged users cannot exceed total employees."); if (isNaN(turnover) || turnover 100) errors.push("Turnover rate must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(disgruntled) || disgruntled 100) errors.push("Disgruntled employee percentage must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(incidents) || incidents 0) { resultDiv.style.display = 'block'; resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Input Errors:' + errors.map(function(e){ return ''; }).join('') + ''; return; }
// --------------------------------------------------------------- // FORMULA // --------------------------------------------------------------- // Step 1: Base threat population ratio // privilegedRatio = privileged / employees // atRiskPopulation = employees * (disgruntled/100) + employees * (turnover/100) * 0.3 // (departing employees account for ~30% of insider threat actors per CERT data) // // Step 2: Raw threat score (0–1 scale before controls) // rawScore = (privilegedRatio * 0.35) // + ((disgruntled/100) * 0.30) // + ((turnover/100) * 0.15) // + (historicalFactor * 0.20) // // historicalFactor = min(1, incidents / (employees / 100)) // normalises past incidents per 100 employees, capped at 1 // // Step 3: Control mitigation multiplier (reduces raw score) // controlScore = (dlp/2)0.30 + (ueba/2)0.35 + (pam/2)0.25 + (training/2)0.10 // mitigationFactor = 1 - (controlScore * 0.75) // controls can reduce probability by up to 75% // // Step 4: Industry multiplier applied // adjustedScore = rawScore * mitigationFactor * industryMultiplier // // Step 5: Convert to annual probability using Poisson approximation // lambda = adjustedScore * scalingConstant (scalingConstant = 2.5, calibrated to // CERT/Verizon DBIR base rates of ~1–3% annual insider incident probability // for average organisations) // P(at least one incident) = 1 - e^(-lambda) // ---------------------------------------------------------------
var privilegedRatio = privileged / employees;
var historicalFactor = Math.min(1.0, incidents / (employees / 100.0));
var rawScore = (privilegedRatio * 0.35) + ((disgruntled / 100) * 0.30) + ((turnover / 100) * 0.15) + (historicalFactor * 0.20);
// Clamp rawScore to [0,1] rawScore = Math.min(1.0, Math.max(0.0, rawScore));
var controlScore = (dlp / 2) * 0.30 + (ueba / 2) * 0.35 + (pam / 2) * 0.25 + (training / 2) * 0.10;
var mitigationFactor = 1.0 - (controlScore * 0.75);
var adjustedScore = rawScore * mitigationFactor * industry;
// Clamp adjustedScore adjustedScore = Math.min(2.0, Math.max(0.0, adjustedScore));
var scalingConstant = 2.5; var lambda = adjustedScore * scalingConstant;
// Poisson: P(X >= 1) = 1 - e^(-lambda) var probability = 1.0 - Math.exp(-lambda);
// Clamp final probability to [0, 0.9999] probability = Math.min(0.9999, Math.max(0.0, probability));
var probabilityPct = (probability * 100).toFixed(2);
// Expected number of incidents per year var expectedIncidents = (lambda * (employees / 1000)).toFixed(2);
// Risk level classification var riskLevel, riskColor, riskAdvice; if (probability ' + 'Annual Insider Threat Probability' + '' + probabilityPct + '%' + 'Risk Level' + '' + riskLevel + '' + 'Estimated At-Risk Population' + '' + atRiskPop.toLocaleString() + ' employees' + 'Raw Risk Score (pre-controls)' + '' + (rawScore * 100).toFixed(1) + ' / 100' + 'Control Mitigation Effectiveness' + '' + ((1 - mitigationFactor) * 100).toFixed(1) + '%' + 'Industry-Adjusted Score' + '' + (adjustedScore * 100).toFixed(1) + ' / 200' + 'Poisson Lambda (λ)' + '' + lambda.toFixed(4) + '' + '' + '' + 'Recommendation: ' + riskAdvice + ''; }
#### Formula
Step 1 – Raw Risk Score
rawScore = (privilegedRatio × 0.35) + (disgruntledPct × 0.30) + (turnoverPct × 0.15) + (historicalFactor × 0.20)
where: privilegedRatio = privilegedUsers / totalEmployees historicalFactor = min(1, pastIncidents / (employees / 100))
Step 2 – Control Mitigation Factor
controlScore = (DLP/2)×0.30 + (UEBA/2)×0.35 + (PAM/2)×0.25 + (Training/2)×0.10 mitigationFactor = 1 − (controlScore × 0.75)
Step 3 – Industry-Adjusted Score
adjustedScore = rawScore × mitigationFactor × industryMultiplier
Step 4 – Annual Probability (Poisson)
λ = adjustedScore × 2.5 P(at least one incident) = 1 − e^(−λ)
#### Assumptions & References
- References: CERT Insider Threat Center (SEI/CMU); Verizon DBIR 2023; Ponemon Institute "Cost of Insider Threats" 2022; CISA Insider Threat Mitigation Guide; NIST SP 800-53 Rev 5.
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