Phishing Exposure Risk Calculator
ANA›Life Services Authority›National Calculator Authority›Phishing Exposure Risk Calculator
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Phishing Exposure Risk Calculator
Estimates your organization's annualized phishing risk exposure (in USD) based on workforce size, email volume, click-through rates, incident response costs, and existing security controls.
Number of Employees
Phishing Emails Received Per Employee Per Day
Baseline Employee Click Rate (% without training)
Security Awareness Training Click Reduction (%)
Email Filter Catch Rate (% of phishing emails blocked)
Credential Compromise Rate per Click (% of clicks leading to compromise)
Average Cost per Phishing Incident (USD)
Working Days Per Year
Calculate Risk Exposure
function phiCalc() { // --- Grab inputs --- var employees = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-employees').value); var emailsPerDay = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-emails-per-day').value); var clickRatePct = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-click-rate').value); var trainingRedPct = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-training-reduction').value); var filterRatePct = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-filter-rate').value); var compromiseRatePct = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-compromise-rate').value); var incidentCost = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-incident-cost').value); var workingDays = parseFloat(document.getElementById('phi-working-days').value);
var resultDiv = document.getElementById('phi-result');
// --- Validation --- var errors = []; if (isNaN(employees) || employees 100) errors.push("Click rate must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(trainingRedPct) || trainingRedPct 100) errors.push("Training reduction must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(filterRatePct) || filterRatePct 100) errors.push("Filter catch rate must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(compromiseRatePct)|| compromiseRatePct 100) errors.push("Compromise rate must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(incidentCost) || incidentCost 365) errors.push("Working days must be between 1 and 365.");
if (errors.length > 0) { resultDiv.style.display = 'block'; resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Please fix the following:' + errors.map(function(e){ return ''; }).join('') + ''; return; }
// --- Core Formula --- // Step 1: Total phishing emails reaching inboxes per year (after filter) // emails_in_inbox = employees × emailsPerDay × workingDays × (1 - filterRate) var filterRate = filterRatePct / 100; var emailsInInbox = employees * emailsPerDay * workingDays * (1 - filterRate);
// Step 2: Effective click rate after training reduction // effectiveClickRate = baselineClickRate × (1 - trainingReduction) var baselineClickRate = clickRatePct / 100; var trainingReduction = trainingRedPct / 100; var effectiveClickRate = baselineClickRate * (1 - trainingReduction);
// Step 3: Expected number of clicks per year // totalClicks = emailsInInbox × effectiveClickRate var totalClicks = emailsInInbox * effectiveClickRate;
// Step 4: Expected number of compromises per year // totalCompromises = totalClicks × compromiseRate var compromiseRate = compromiseRatePct / 100; var totalCompromises = totalClicks * compromiseRate;
// Step 5: Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) // ALE = totalCompromises × incidentCost var ale = totalCompromises * incidentCost;
// Step 6: Risk per employee var alePerEmployee = ale / employees;
// Step 7: Probability that at least one incident occurs this year // P(at least 1) = 1 - (1 - compromiseRate × effectiveClickRate × (1-filterRate) × emailsPerDay × workingDays / employees)^employees // Simplified: P(≥1 incident) = 1 - e^(-totalCompromises) [Poisson approximation] var probAtLeastOne = 1 - Math.exp(-totalCompromises); if (probAtLeastOne > 1) probAtLeastOne = 1;
// --- Risk Level --- var riskLevel, riskColor; if (ale ' + 'Phishing Emails Reaching Inboxes / Year' + fmt(emailsInInbox) + '' + 'Effective Employee Click Rate' + fmtPct(effectiveClickRate) + '' + 'Expected Clicks / Year' + fmt(totalClicks) + '' + 'Expected Compromises / Year' + fmt(totalCompromises) + '' + 'Probability of ≥1 Incident This Year' + fmtPct(probAtLeastOne) + '' + 'Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE)' + fmtUSD(ale) + '' + 'ALE per Employee' + fmtUSD(alePerEmployee) + '' + 'Risk Level' + riskLevel + '' + ''; }
#### Formula
Step 1 — Emails reaching inboxes per year: Emails_in_Inbox = Employees × Emails_Per_Day × Working_Days × (1 − Filter_Rate)
Step 2 — Effective click rate after training: Effective_Click_Rate = Baseline_Click_Rate × (1 − Training_Reduction)
Step 3 — Expected clicks per year: Total_Clicks = Emails_in_Inbox × Effective_Click_Rate
Step 4 — Expected compromises per year: Total_Compromises = Total_Clicks × Compromise_Rate
Step 5 — Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE): ALE = Total_Compromises × Cost_Per_Incident
Step 6 — Probability of at least one incident (Poisson approximation): P(≥1 incident) = 1 − e−Total_Compromises
#### Assumptions & References
- The Poisson approximation P(≥1) = 1 − e−λ is appropriate when individual incident probabilities are small and events are independent.
- ALE is a standard metric from NIST SP 800-30 risk assessment methodology: ALE = ARO × SLE, where ARO is the annual rate of occurrence and SLE is the single loss expectancy.
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