Phoenix Tourism Seasonal Demand Estimator
Estimates monthly visitor volume, hotel occupancy rate, and total tourism spending for Phoenix, AZ using seasonal demand indices, base capacity inputs, and historical market data from the Arizona Office of Tourism.
Formulas Used
Seasonal Occupancy Rate:
Occ_month = BaseAnnualOccupancy × SeasonalIndex_month × (1 + EventBoost%)
Capped at the user-defined Occupancy Capacity Cap.
Occupied Room Nights:
OccRoomNights = TotalRooms × DaysInMonth × Occ_month
Visitor Volume:
Visitors = (OccRoomNights ÷ AvgLengthOfStay) × 1.8 guests/room
Lodging Revenue:
LodgingRevenue = OccRoomNights × ADR
Non-Lodging Spend:
NonLodgingRevenue = Visitors × NonLodgeSpendPerDay × AvgLengthOfStay
Total Direct Tourism Spending:
TotalSpend = LodgingRevenue + NonLodgingRevenue
Total Economic Impact:
EconomicImpact = TotalSpend × 1.7 (IMPLAN tourism multiplier for Arizona)
Jobs Supported (annualized):
Jobs = (TotalSpend × 12) ÷ $85,000 (AZ tourism jobs-per-dollar ratio)
Assumptions & References
- Base Annual Occupancy 68.4%: STR (CoStar) Phoenix Metro Hotel Performance Report, 2023 annual average.
- Seasonal Demand Indices: Derived from Arizona Office of Tourism monthly visitor profiles and STR monthly occupancy data (2019–2023 average, excluding COVID anomaly years 2020–2021).
- Peak months (Jan–Mar, SI 1.22–1.28): Driven by snowbird migration, Spring Training (15 Cactus League teams, ~200,000 attendees/year), and mild temperatures (avg highs 65–75°F).
- Low season (Jun–Aug, SI 0.65–0.72): Extreme heat (avg highs 104–106°F) suppresses leisure travel; business travel partially sustains demand.
- Guests per room (1.8): Arizona Office of Tourism Visitor Profile Study, 2022.
- Non-lodging spend $142/day: Dean Runyan Associates, Arizona Travel Impacts Report, 2022.
- Economic multiplier 1.7: IMPLAN economic impact model for Arizona tourism sector (Arizona Commerce Authority, 2022).
- Jobs ratio $85,000/job: Arizona Office of Tourism, Tourism's Economic Impact on Arizona, 2022 — 327,000 tourism jobs on $27.8B in spending.
- Occupancy cap 95%: Industry standard; rooms require maintenance, deep cleaning, and turnover time preventing 100% utilization.
- Event boost: User-defined; Super Bowl LVII (Feb 2023) drove Phoenix occupancy to ~92% with ADR exceeding $400 (STR). Spring Training adds ~5–8% lift in Feb–Mar.
- This tool provides estimates for planning purposes. Actual results vary based on competitive supply changes, macroeconomic conditions, airline capacity, and individual property performance.