Physical Security Risk Assessment Calculator

ANA›Life Services Authority›National Calculator Authority›Physical Security Risk Assessment Calculator

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Physical Security Risk Assessment Calculator

Quantify physical security risk using the NIST SP 800-30 risk model: Risk = Threat Likelihood × Vulnerability × Asset Value. Scores are normalized to a 0–100 scale.

### Asset Information

Asset Value (1–10)

Rate the importance/criticality of the asset (1 = low, 10 = critical infrastructure).

Asset Exposure Score (1–10)

How accessible or visible is the asset to potential threats (1 = isolated, 10 = fully public).

### Threat Assessment

Threat Likelihood (1–10)

Likelihood that a threat actor will attempt to exploit the asset (1 = rare, 10 = near certain).

Threat Capability (1–10)

Resources and skill level of the threat actor (1 = unskilled, 10 = nation-state level).

### Vulnerability & Controls

Vulnerability Score (1–10)

Degree of weakness in existing physical controls (1 = hardened, 10 = no controls).

Existing Control Effectiveness (0–100%)

How effective are current physical security controls (locks, guards, cameras, fencing, etc.).

### Impact Assessment

Safety Impact (1–10)

Potential harm to personnel if a breach occurs.

Operational Impact (1–10)

Disruption to operations if the asset is compromised.

Financial Impact (1–10)

Estimated financial loss from a successful breach.

Reputational Impact (1–10)

Damage to organizational reputation if the breach becomes public.

Calculate Risk Score

### Risk Assessment Results

Component Score Interpretation

Overall Physical Security Risk Score

function phyValidate(id, min, max, label) { var val = parseFloat(document.getElementById(id).value); if (isNaN(val) || val max) { alert(label + " must be between " + min + " and " + max + "."); return null; } return val; }

function phyRiskLabel(score) { if (score >= 80) return { label: "Critical", color: "#c0392b" }; if (score >= 60) return { label: "High", color: "#e67e22" }; if (score >= 40) return { label: "Medium", color: "#f1c40f" }; if (score >= 20) return { label: "Low", color: "#27ae60" }; return { label: "Minimal", color: "#2ecc71" }; }

function phyInterpret(score, thresholds) { // thresholds: [low, medium, high, critical] boundaries on 1-10 scale if (score >= 8) return "Critical"; if (score >= 6) return "High"; if (score >= 4) return "Medium"; if (score >= 2) return "Low"; return "Minimal"; }

function phyCalc() { // --- Retrieve & validate inputs --- var assetValue = phyValidate("phy-asset-value", 1, 10, "Asset Value"); var assetExposure = phyValidate("phy-asset-exposure", 1, 10, "Asset Exposure Score"); var threatLikelihood = phyValidate("phy-threat-likelihood", 1, 10, "Threat Likelihood"); var threatCapability = phyValidate("phy-threat-capability", 1, 10, "Threat Capability"); var vulnerability = phyValidate("phy-vulnerability", 1, 10, "Vulnerability Score"); var controlEff = phyValidate("phy-control-effectiveness",0, 100, "Control Effectiveness"); var impactSafety = phyValidate("phy-impact-safety", 1, 10, "Safety Impact"); var impactOps = phyValidate("phy-impact-operational", 1, 10, "Operational Impact"); var impactFinancial = phyValidate("phy-impact-financial", 1, 10, "Financial Impact"); var impactRep = phyValidate("phy-impact-reputational", 1, 10, "Reputational Impact");

if ([assetValue, assetExposure, threatLikelihood, threatCapability, vulnerability, controlEff, impactSafety, impactOps, impactFinancial, impactRep].some(v => v === null)) return;

// --- Composite Threat Score (0–10) --- // Weighted: likelihood 60%, capability 40% var threatScore = (0.6 * threatLikelihood) + (0.4 * threatCapability);

// --- Adjusted Vulnerability (0–10) --- // Reduce raw vulnerability by control effectiveness // controlEff 100% → vulnerability reduced to 0; 0% → no reduction var adjVulnerability = vulnerability * (1 - controlEff / 100);

// --- Composite Asset Score (0–10) --- // Weighted: asset value 70%, exposure 30% var assetScore = (0.7 * assetValue) + (0.3 * assetExposure);

// --- Composite Impact Score (0–10) --- // Weighted: safety 35%, operational 30%, financial 20%, reputational 15% var impactScore = (0.35 * impactSafety) + (0.30 * impactOps) + (0.20 * impactFinancial) + (0.15 * impactRep);

// --- Core Risk Score (NIST SP 800-30 model) --- // Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Asset Value (each 0–10) // Max raw = 10 × 10 × 10 = 1000 → normalize to 0–100 var rawRisk = threatScore * adjVulnerability * assetScore; var normalizedRisk = (rawRisk / 1000) * 100;

// --- Final Risk Score --- // Blend core risk (70%) with impact score normalized (30%) // impactScore is 0–10 → scale to 0–100 var impactNorm = impactScore * 10; var finalRisk = (0.70 * normalizedRisk) + (0.30 * impactNorm); finalRisk = Math.min(100, Math.max(0, finalRisk));

// --- Residual Risk after controls --- // Residual = Final Risk × (1 - controlEff/100) var residualRisk = finalRisk * (1 - controlEff / 100);

// --- Risk Reduction Potential --- var riskReduction = finalRisk - residualRisk;

// --- Build results table --- var rows = [ ["Composite Threat Score", threatScore.toFixed(2) + " / 10", phyInterpret(threatScore)], ["Adjusted Vulnerability", adjVulnerability.toFixed(2) + " / 10", phyInterpret(adjVulnerability)], ["Composite Asset Score", assetScore.toFixed(2) + " / 10", phyInterpret(assetScore)], ["Composite Impact Score", impactScore.toFixed(2) + " / 10", phyInterpret(impactScore)], ["Core Risk (Threat×Vuln×Asset)",normalizedRisk.toFixed(1) + " / 100",phyRiskLabel(normalizedRisk).label], ["Final Blended Risk Score", finalRisk.toFixed(1) + " / 100",phyRiskLabel(finalRisk).label], ["Residual Risk (post-controls)",residualRisk.toFixed(1) + " / 100",phyRiskLabel(residualRisk).label], ["Risk Reduction from Controls", riskReduction.toFixed(1) + " pts", controlEff + "% control effectiveness"], ];

var tbody = document.getElementById("phy-result-body"); tbody.innerHTML = ""; rows.forEach(function(r) { var tr = document.createElement("tr"); tr.innerHTML = "" + r[0] + "" + r[1] + "" + r[2] + ""; tbody.appendChild(tr); });

// --- Gauge --- var info = phyRiskLabel(finalRisk); var gauge = document.getElementById("phy-risk-gauge"); gauge.style.background = info.color + "22"; gauge.style.border = "2px solid " + info.color; document.getElementById("phy-risk-score-display").textContent = finalRisk.toFixed(1); document.getElementById("phy-risk-score-display").style.color = info.color; document.getElementById("phy-risk-label").textContent = info.label + " Risk"; document.getElementById("phy-risk-label").style.color = info.color; var bar = document.getElementById("phy-risk-bar"); bar.style.width = finalRisk.toFixed(1) + "%"; bar.style.background = info.color;

// --- Recommendations --- var recs = []; if (adjVulnerability > 6) recs.push("🔒 Strengthen physical controls: Install reinforced access control systems, upgrade locks, and add intrusion detection sensors."); if (threatLikelihood > 7) recs.push("👁️ Increase surveillance: Deploy CCTV with AI-based anomaly detection and increase security patrol frequency."); if (threatCapability > 7) recs.push("🛡️ Harden perimeter: Implement anti-ram barriers, mantraps, and layered access zones to counter sophisticated threats."); if (assetExposure > 7) recs.push("📍 Reduce asset exposure: Relocate critical assets to restricted areas, limit public knowledge of asset locations."); if (controlEff 7) recs.push("🚨 Emergency response plan: Develop and drill physical security incident response procedures to minimize personnel harm."); if (impactOps > 7) recs.push("⚙️ Business continuity: Establish redundant operational sites and backup systems to maintain operations during a breach."); if (finalRisk >= 60) recs.push("📊 Immediate risk treatment required: Escalate to senior management and initiate a formal risk treatment plan within 30 days."); if (residualRisk > 40) recs.push("💡 Invest in additional controls: Current controls are insufficient to reduce residual risk to an acceptable level."); if (recs.length === 0) recs.push("✅ Risk is within acceptable range: Continue monitoring and conduct periodic reassessments (at least annually).");

var recDiv = document.getElementById("phy-recommendations"); recDiv.innerHTML = "#### Recommendations " + recs.map(function(r){ return ""; }).join("") + "";

document.getElementById("phy-result").style.display = "block"; document.getElementById("phy-result").scrollIntoView({ behavior: "smooth" }); }

#### Formulas Used

1. Composite Threat Score (0–10): Threat = (0.6 × Threat Likelihood) + (0.4 × Threat Capability)

2. Adjusted Vulnerability (0–10): Adj. Vulnerability = Vulnerability × (1 − Control Effectiveness / 100) Reflects the residual weakness after existing controls are applied.

3. Composite Asset Score (0–10): Asset Score = (0.7 × Asset Value) + (0.3 × Asset Exposure)

4. Composite Impact Score (0–10): Impact = (0.35 × Safety) + (0.30 × Operational) + (0.20 × Financial) + (0.15 × Reputational)

5. Core Risk Score (normalized 0–100) — NIST SP 800-30: Core Risk = (Threat × Adj. Vulnerability × Asset Score) / 1000 × 100 Maximum raw value = 10 × 10 × 10 = 1,000 → normalized to 100.

6. Final Blended Risk Score (0–100): Final Risk = (0.70 × Core Risk) + (0.30 × Impact Score × 10) Blends likelihood-based risk with consequence severity.

7. Residual Risk (0–100): Residual Risk = Final Risk × (1 − Control Effectiveness / 100)

Risk Levels: Minimal (0–19) | Low (20–39) | Medium (40–59) | High (60–79) | Critical (80–100)

#### Assumptions & References

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References

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