Settlement vs. Trial Cost-Benefit Calculator
ANA›Life Services Authority›National Calculator Authority›Settlement vs. Trial Cost-Benefit Calculator
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Settlement vs. Trial Cost-Benefit Calculator
Compare the financial expected value of accepting a settlement offer versus proceeding to trial, factoring in litigation costs, win probability, and potential damages.
### Settlement Details
Settlement Offer Amount ($)
Your Legal Costs to Settle ($)
### Trial Details
Probability of Winning at Trial (%)
Expected Damages if You Win ($)
Expected Damages if You Lose ($)(amount you pay / receive if defendant wins)
Your Total Trial Legal Costs ($)
Opponent Legal Costs (if fee-shifting applies) ($)
Fee-Shifting Rule
No fee-shifting (American Rule) Loser pays all fees (English Rule) Winner collects own fees from loser
### Risk & Time Adjustments
Annual Discount Rate (%)Time value of money
Estimated Years Until Trial Conclusion
Risk Preference
Risk Neutral (use expected values) Risk Averse (apply 10% discount to trial EV) Risk Seeking (apply 10% premium to trial EV)
Perspective
Plaintiff (seeking damages) Defendant (defending claim)
Calculate
function setCalc() { const resultDiv = document.getElementById('set-result');
const settlementOffer = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-settlement-offer').value); const settlementCosts = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-settlement-costs').value); const winProbRaw = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-win-probability').value); const damagesWin = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-damages-win').value); const damagesLose = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-damages-lose').value); const trialCosts = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-trial-costs').value); const opponentCosts = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-opponent-costs').value); const feeShifting = document.getElementById('set-fee-shifting').value; const discountRate = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-discount-rate').value) / 100; const trialYears = parseFloat(document.getElementById('set-trial-years').value); const riskPref = document.getElementById('set-risk-aversion').value; const perspective = document.getElementById('set-perspective').value;
// Validation const errors = []; if (isNaN(settlementOffer) || settlementOffer 100) errors.push("Win probability must be between 0 and 100."); if (isNaN(damagesWin) || damagesWin 0) { resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Please fix the following:' + errors.map(e => '').join('') + ''; return; }
const winProb = winProbRaw / 100; const loseProb = 1 - winProb;
// --- Net Settlement Value --- // Plaintiff: receives offer, pays own settlement costs // Defendant: pays offer, pays own settlement costs let netSettlement; if (perspective === 'plaintiff') { netSettlement = settlementOffer - settlementCosts; } else { netSettlement = -(settlementOffer + settlementCosts); }
// --- Fee-shifting adjustments for trial --- // Win scenario: what you gain/pay in damages + fee effects // Lose scenario: what you gain/pay in damages + fee effects let winFeeEffect = 0; let loseFeeEffect = 0;
if (feeShifting === 'loser-pays') { // Winner pays nothing; loser pays both sides' fees // If you win: opponent pays their own costs (you recover your trial costs from them) // If you lose: you pay your costs + opponent's costs winFeeEffect = trialCosts; // you recover your costs loseFeeEffect = opponentCosts; // you pay opponent's costs on top of your own } else if (feeShifting === 'winner-collects') { // Winner collects their own fees from loser winFeeEffect = trialCosts; // you recover your costs if you win loseFeeEffect = 0; // you don't pay opponent's costs if you lose } // American Rule: no fee shifting (winFeeEffect = loseFeeEffect = 0)
// --- Gross trial outcomes (before own costs) --- let grossWin, grossLose; if (perspective === 'plaintiff') { // Win: receive damagesWin + recover fees if applicable grossWin = damagesWin + winFeeEffect; // Lose: receive damagesLose (often 0) - extra fee burden grossLose = damagesLose - loseFeeEffect; } else { // Defendant: Win means you pay less / nothing // Win: pay damagesLose (counterclaim or zero) + recover fees if applicable grossWin = -(damagesLose) + winFeeEffect; // Lose: pay damagesWin + extra fee burden grossLose = -(damagesWin) - loseFeeEffect; }
// --- Expected Gross Trial Value --- const expectedGrossTrialValue = (winProb * grossWin) + (loseProb * grossLose);
// --- Subtract own trial costs --- let netTrialValueBeforeDiscount; if (perspective === 'plaintiff') { // If loser-pays or winner-collects, own costs recovered on win if (feeShifting === 'none') { netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - trialCosts; } else if (feeShifting === 'loser-pays') { // Own costs: recovered if win (already in winFeeEffect), paid if lose (already in loseFeeEffect) // So own base costs are already netted via fee effects; subtract only the portion not recovered // Actually: own costs always paid upfront; recovered portion is in winFeeEffect // Net own cost = trialCosts - winProb * trialCosts = loseProb * trialCosts netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - (loseProb * trialCosts); } else { // winner-collects: recover own costs if win netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - (loseProb * trialCosts); } } else { // Defendant if (feeShifting === 'none') { netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - trialCosts; } else if (feeShifting === 'loser-pays') { netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - (loseProb * trialCosts); } else { netTrialValueBeforeDiscount = expectedGrossTrialValue - (loseProb * trialCosts); } }
- // --- Time Value of Money Discount ---
- // PV = FV / (1 + r)^t
- const discountFactor = (discountRate > 0 && trialYears > 0)
- ? Math.pow(1 + discountRate, trialYears)
- 1; const netTrialValueDiscounted = netTrialValueBeforeDiscount / discountFactor;
// --- Risk Preference Adjustment --- let riskMultiplier = 1.0; if (riskPref === 'averse') riskMultiplier = 0.90; if (riskPref === 'seeking') riskMultiplier = 1.10; const adjustedTrialEV = netTrialValueDiscounted * riskMultiplier;
// --- Decision --- const difference = adjustedTrialEV - netSettlement; let recommendation, recClass; if (perspective === 'plaintiff') { if (adjustedTrialEV > netSettlement) { recommendation = "Proceed to Trial — Expected trial value exceeds settlement net value."; recClass = "calc-positive"; } else if (adjustedTrialEV netSettlement) { recommendation = "Proceed to Trial — Expected trial cost is lower than settlement cost."; recClass = "calc-positive"; } else if (adjustedTrialEV 0.01) { const target = netSettlement * discountFactor / riskMultiplier; if (perspective === 'plaintiff') { breakevenProb = (target - damagesLose + trialCosts) / denominator; } else { breakevenProb = (target + damagesWin + trialCosts) / (damagesWin - damagesLose); } breakevenProb = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, breakevenProb)); }
const fmt = v => v.toLocaleString('en-US', {style:'currency', currency:'USD', maximumFractionDigits:0}); const fmtPct = v => (v * 100).toFixed(1) + '%';
resultDiv.innerHTML = ` ### Results
MetricValue Net Settlement Value\${fmt(netSettlement)} Expected Gross Trial Value\${fmt(expectedGrossTrialValue)} Net Trial Value (before discount)\${fmt(netTrialValueBeforeDiscount)} Discount Factor (PV adjustment)\${discountFactor.toFixed(4)}× Net Trial Value (time-adjusted)\${fmt(netTrialValueDiscounted)} Risk Adjustment Multiplier\${(riskMultiplier * 100).toFixed(0)}% Adjusted Trial Expected Value\${fmt(adjustedTrialEV)} Net Settlement Value\${fmt(netSettlement)} Difference (Trial EV − Settlement)\${fmt(difference)} \${breakevenProb !== null ? `Breakeven Win Probability\${fmtPct(breakevenProb)}` : ''}
Recommendation: \${recommendation}
Win Probability Entered: \${fmtPct(winProb)} | \${breakevenProb !== null ? `Breakeven: \${fmtPct(breakevenProb)} — You need to win more than \${fmtPct(breakevenProb)} of the time for trial to be preferable.` : ''}
`; }
#### Formulas Used
Net Settlement Value (Plaintiff): Net Settlement = Settlement Offer − Settlement Legal Costs
Net Settlement Value (Defendant): Net Settlement = −(Settlement Offer + Settlement Legal Costs)
Expected Gross Trial Value: EVgross = P(win) × Outcomewin + P(lose) × Outcomelose
Fee-Shifting Adjustments: • American Rule: Each party pays own costs regardless of outcome • English Rule (Loser Pays): Winner recovers own costs; loser pays both sides • Winner Collects: Winner recovers own costs from loser only
Time Value of Money (Present Value): PV = Net Trial Value ÷ (1 + r)t where r = annual discount rate, t = years until trial conclusion
Risk Adjustment: Adjusted Trial EV = PV × Risk Multiplier (Risk Neutral = 1.0, Risk Averse = 0.90, Risk Seeking = 1.10)
Breakeven Win Probability (American Rule): p* = (Net Settlement × Discount Factor / Risk Multiplier − Damageslose + Trial Costs) ÷ (Damageswin − Damageslose)
#### Assumptions & References
- Reference: Posner, R.A. (1973). "An Economic Approach to Legal Procedure and Judicial Administration." Journal of Legal Studies, 2(2), 399–458.
- Reference: Shavell, S. (1982). "Suit, Settlement, and Trial: A Theoretical Analysis." Journal of Legal Studies, 11(1), 55–81.
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