Surplus Value Calculator: Contract Cost vs. Draft Slot Production

ANA›Life Services Authority›National Calculator Authority›Surplus Value Calculator: Contract Cost vs. Draft Slot Production

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Surplus Value Calculator: Contract Cost vs. Draft Slot Production

Compare a player's actual contract cost against the expected production value from their draft slot to determine surplus or deficit value.

Draft Pick Number (1–260)

Player's Annual Contract Value (AAV) in $M

Player's Actual WAR per Season

Market Rate: $ per WAR (in $M, default 8.0)

Years of Pre-Arb / Arb Control Remaining

Calculate Surplus Value Results will appear here.

function surCalc() { var pickRaw = document.getElementById('sur-draft-pick').value.trim(); var aavRaw = document.getElementById('sur-contract-aav').value.trim(); var warRaw = document.getElementById('sur-war-per-season').value.trim(); var dpwRaw = document.getElementById('sur-dollars-per-war').value.trim(); var yearsRaw = document.getElementById('sur-service-years').value.trim(); var resultDiv = document.getElementById('sur-result');

// Validation if (pickRaw === '' || aavRaw === '' || warRaw === '' || yearsRaw === '') { resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Please fill in all required fields.'; return; } var pick = parseFloat(pickRaw); var aav = parseFloat(aavRaw); var war = parseFloat(warRaw); var dpw = dpwRaw === '' ? 8.0 : parseFloat(dpwRaw); var years = parseInt(yearsRaw);

if (isNaN(pick) || pick 260) { resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Draft pick must be between 1 and 260.'; return; } if (isNaN(aav) || aav AAV must be a non-negative number.'; return; } if (isNaN(war) || war 15) { resultDiv.innerHTML = 'WAR per season must be between -5 and 15.'; return; } if (isNaN(dpw) || dpw Dollars per WAR must be a positive number.'; return; } if (isNaN(years) || years 6) { resultDiv.innerHTML = 'Service years must be between 1 and 6.'; return; }

// --- Core Formulas ---

// 1. Expected WAR from draft slot using logarithmic decay model // Based on empirical draft value curves: top picks produce ~3–4 WAR/yr, late picks ~0.5 // Formula: expectedWAR = A * exp(-B * (pick - 1)) // Calibrated constants: A = 3.8 (1st overall WAR/yr), B = 0.018 (decay rate) var A = 3.8; var B = 0.018; var expectedWARperSeason = A * Math.exp(-B * (pick - 1)); expectedWARperSeason = Math.max(0.1, expectedWARperSeason); // floor at 0.1

// 2. Slot signing bonus amortized value (approximate, based on MLB slot values) // Slot bonus ≈ 10.0 * exp(-0.016 * (pick - 1)) in $M var slotBonus = 10.0 * Math.exp(-0.016 * (pick - 1)); slotBonus = Math.max(0.1, slotBonus); // Amortized over 6 years of control var amortizedSlotCostPerYear = slotBonus / 6.0;

// 3. Pre-arb / arb salary scale (approximate MLB averages) // Pre-arb years 1-3: ~$0.72M/yr (league minimum ~$720k) // Arb years 4-6: scale up 40%, 60%, 80% of market value var leagueMin = 0.72; // $M var totalControlCost = 0; for (var y = 1; y 0 ? actualMarketValuePerYear / totalCostPerYear : 0; var sviContract = aav > 0 ? actualMarketValuePerYear / aav : 0;

// 8. Expected vs Actual WAR delta var warDelta = war - expectedWARperSeason;

// Formatting helpers function fmt(v, d) { return v.toFixed(d !== undefined ? d : 2); } function fmtM(v) { var s = v >= 0 ? '+$' : '-$'; return s + Math.abs(v).toFixed(2) + 'M'; } function surplusLabel(v) { if (v > 2) return 'Strong Surplus'; if (v > 0) return 'Modest Surplus'; if (v === 0) return 'Break-Even'; if (v > -2) return 'Modest Deficit'; return 'Significant Deficit'; }

var html = '### Surplus Value Results '; html += ''; html += 'MetricValue';

html += 'Draft Pick #' + pick + ' — Expected WAR/Season' + fmt(expectedWARperSeason) + ' WAR'; html += 'Player Actual WAR/Season' + fmt(war) + ' WAR'; html += 'WAR vs. Draft Slot Expectation' + (warDelta >= 0 ? '+' : '') + fmt(warDelta) + ' WAR';

html += '— Draft Control Scenario —'; html += 'Estimated Slot Bonus$' + fmt(slotBonus) + 'M'; html += 'Amortized Slot Cost/Year$' + fmt(amortizedSlotCostPerYear) + 'M'; html += 'Avg Control Salary/Year (' + years + ' yrs)$' + fmt(avgControlCostPerYear) + 'M'; html += 'Total Cost/Year (Slot + Salary)$' + fmt(totalCostPerYear) + 'M'; html += 'Surplus vs. Draft Cost/Year' + fmtM(surplusVsDraftCost) + '/yr  ' + surplusLabel(surplusVsDraftCost) + ''; html += 'Total Surplus vs. Draft Cost (' + years + ' yrs)' + fmtM(totalSurplusDraft) + ''; html += 'Surplus Value Index (Draft)' + fmt(sviDraft) + 'x';

html += '— Contract AAV Scenario —'; html += 'Player Market Value/Year$' + fmt(actualMarketValuePerYear) + 'M'; html += 'Contract AAV$' + fmt(aav) + 'M'; html += 'Surplus vs. Contract AAV/Year' + fmtM(surplusVsContractAAV) + '/yr  ' + surplusLabel(surplusVsContractAAV) + ''; html += 'Total Surplus vs. Contract (' + years + ' yrs)' + fmtM(totalSurplusContract) + ''; html += 'Surplus Value Index (Contract)' + fmt(sviContract) + 'x';

html += '';

// Interpretation html += ''; html += 'Interpretation: '; if (surplusVsDraftCost > 0 && surplusVsContractAAV > 0) { html += 'This player generates surplus value under both the draft control cost and the contract AAV scenarios — a strong asset.'; } else if (surplusVsDraftCost > 0 && surplusVsContractAAV 0) { html += 'The player underperforms their draft slot expectation but the contract is team-friendly relative to market value.'; } else { html += 'The player generates a deficit under both scenarios. Production does not justify either the draft investment or the contract cost.'; } html += '';

resultDiv.innerHTML = html; }

#### Formulas Used

1. Expected WAR from Draft Slot: Expected WAR/Season = 3.8 × e−0.018 × (pick − 1) Logarithmic decay model calibrated so pick #1 ≈ 3.8 WAR/yr and pick #260 ≈ 0.15 WAR/yr.

2. Slot Bonus Estimate: Slot Bonus ($M) = 10.0 × e−0.016 × (pick − 1) Approximates MLB slot values; amortized over 6 years of team control.

3. Control Salary Scale: Pre-arb years (1–3): $0.72M/yr (league minimum). Arb year 4: 40% of market value; Year 5: 60%; Year 6: 80%.

4. Market Value of Production: Market Value/Year ($M) = WAR/Season × $/WAR

5. Surplus Value (Draft Control): Surplus/Year = Market Value/Year − (Amortized Slot Cost/Year + Avg Control Salary/Year)

6. Surplus Value (Contract AAV): Surplus/Year = Market Value/Year − AAV

7. Surplus Value Index (SVI): SVI = Market Value/Year ÷ Total Cost/Year SVI > 1.0 = surplus; SVI < 1.0 = deficit.

#### Assumptions & References

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References

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