Expected Value by Draft Position Calculator
Estimate the expected career value of an NFL draft pick based on its overall selection number, using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, the Chase Stuart AV curve, and a composite model.
Formulas
Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart:
Picks 1–32: published hard-coded values (e.g., Pick 1 = 3,000 pts, Pick 32 = 590 pts).
Picks 33+: V(p) = 590 × e−0.0715 × (p − 32)
Chase Stuart AV Curve:
AV(p) = 100 × (1/p)0.67
Derived from empirical career Approximate Value data across thousands of draft picks
(Football Perspective, 2012). Pick 1 ≈ 100 AV units; pick 32 ≈ 20 AV units.
Composite Model:
C(p) = 0.5 × [JJ(p) / JJ(1) × 100] + 0.5 × AV(p)
Both models are normalized to a 0–100 scale and equally weighted.
Percentile:
Percentile = (1 − picks with higher value / total picks) × 100
Assumptions & References
- The Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart was created in the 1990s and remains the most widely cited NFL draft trade reference. Values are subjective but industry-standard.
- The Chase Stuart AV Curve is based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value metric regressed against draft position across 1980–2011 drafts (Football Perspective, 2012). The power-law exponent 0.67 is the published best fit.
- The exponential decay formula for JJ picks 33+ is fitted to match the published chart's slope; values below 1 are floored at 0.
- The composite model assumes equal weight between trade-market value and on-field production value — adjust weights for your specific use case.
- AV is a single-number career metric; it does not capture positional scarcity, team scheme fit, or injury risk.
- Default league size is 32 (NFL); adjust for fantasy or other leagues.
- References: Johnson Trade Chart (Dallas Cowboys, ~1991); Stuart, C. (2012) "How to Value the NFL Draft," Football Perspective; Pro Football Reference AV methodology.