MTG Mana Curve Calculator
Analyze your Magic: The Gathering deck's mana curve, calculate average converted mana cost (CMC), and get land count recommendations based on your curve.
Formulas Used
Average CMC:
avgCMC = Σ(CMCi × counti) / totalSpells
Where CMCi is the mana value for each slot (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and user-defined average for 6+).
Land Recommendation (Frank Karsten, 2022):
Lands60 = 19.59 + 1.90 × avgCMC
Landsscaled = Lands60 × (deckSize / 60), rounded to nearest integer.
Clamped to format-appropriate ranges: Limited 14–20, 60-card 18–28, Commander 33–45.
Opening Hand Land Probability (Hypergeometric Distribution):
P(X = k) = C(K, k) × C(N−K, n−k) / C(N, n)
Where N = deck size, K = land count, n = 7 (opening hand size), k = number of lands drawn.
P(at least 1 land) = 1 − P(X = 0)
P(ideal 2–3 lands) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
Assumptions & References
- Land recommendation formula derived from Frank Karsten's 2022 article on Channel Fireball: "How Many Lands Do You Need in Your Deck?"
- The formula is calibrated for 60-card decks and scaled proportionally for other formats.
- CMC 0 spells (e.g., Mox Opal, Ornithopter) contribute 0 to total mana cost but count toward spell total.
- For the 6+ CMC slot, the user provides an average CMC since individual values vary widely.
- Hypergeometric probabilities assume a perfectly shuffled library with no mulligans.
- The London Mulligan rule (draw 7, put back 1 per mulligan) can improve land-hit rates beyond what is shown here.
- Commander decks typically run 37–38 lands; the formula may suggest slightly different values depending on curve.
- Mana dorks (e.g., Llanowar Elves) and mana rocks (e.g., Sol Ring) are not modeled as lands here; treat them as CMC 1–2 spells.
- Archetype thresholds: Hyper-Aggro <1.5, Aggro 1.5–2.2, Aggro-Midrange 2.2–3.0, Midrange 3.0–3.8, Control/Ramp 3.8–4.5, Big Mana 4.5+.